The Plunge of '16

Here in early February, fairly typical seasonal temperatures have finally arrived, but nonetheless it's shaping up to be a remarkable winter. El Niño has brought the expected generous winter rains. But contrary to the averages, the unseasonably warm temperatures of fall continued well into the new year. It's given me a yard full of oddities--- fig trees carrying fruit, laurel oaks that leafed out in early January, and fruit trees flushing growth all over the place. Chances are that many of your trees are equally confused.

Of course for us fanciers of subtropical fruit trees, and especially for those of us who can't resist the urge to push the envelope with some of the tender tropicals, the freezing mark is all-important. Chances of a freeze start to diminish by the end of January, and nearly vanish by the end of February.

Last winter was frost-free, until the plunge the morning of February 20 knocked ten or fifteen degrees off the overnight lows. Temperatures rebounded the next day, and a newspaper cartoon a few days later showed a gravestone labeled “R. I. P. Winter of 2015, February 19, 2015—February 20, 2015”. At my place four miles from the coast, I covered a few of the most cold-sensitive experiments, and the hour or two below the mark left no significant damage. Even east of I-75, MRFC Secretary Josh Starry got his jakfruit tree through the night, and was eating its fruit a few months later.

The plunge of '15 was forecast well in advance, so this year I wasn't worried about the high 30's predicted for the night of Sunday, January 24. Monday morning I went out for weekly “gleaning”--- charity harvesting for the food bank--- at nearby Jessica's organic farm. As we gathered collard greens, a fellow gleaner announced that he had found ice on one of the plants. I was too polite to laugh aloud. But a few minutes later, I too found a chunk nestled in the stem of a low collard leaf.

At home later that morning, a check of the weather stats found that despite low temperatures in the 40's along much of the coast, a low of 34 was recorded at the Sarasota airport three miles to my west. It reached 33 at a friend's a mile and a half to the west, so most likely my location grazed the freezing mark. It was enough to damage new growth on a few of the fruit trees, and knock the wind out of some of the ornamentals. But nothing that won't be long forgotten by the time summer heat arrives.

Current forecasts see lows in the 40's and 50's all the way past Valentine's Day, so barring a freakish late plunge like that of last year, our trees appear safe from major damage. In the coming months, we will find out how the fall and winter's unusual patterns affect the fruiting seasons. I've heard predictions from expert growers that we won't see lychees or even longans this year, but time will tell. As a dooryard grower not dependent on my trees to make a living, I can watch all this with interest rather than anxiety. And for everyone, it's been a good year for growth, and by next winter our trees will be larger and better able to withstand the hard freezes that will someday return.