The Heat Is On

Every fruit tree grower, and most everybody else, knows that it's been unseasonably warm in Florida. Throughout our state, in fact, it was the warmest November ever recorded, and with today's ten-day predicted highs and lows both far above average, there is no letup on the horizon.

The good news is that we're getting extra growth from young trees, like this vigorous December flush on my young No Mai Tsze lychee tree. The bad news is that annual cycles are being disrupted. My fig trees, which should be dropping their leaves for the winter, are merrily budding. Friends report blueberry plants heavy with fruit. You can probably supply your own examples.

For a dooryard hobbyist like me, a bad blueberry or lychee crop next year is not a big concern--- though I feel for commercial growers out there who may be facing major losses. My main worry is that we're set up for the tropical fruit tree grower's nightmare--- trees in active growing mode hit by a sudden freeze. I've meditated to Ma'am Gaia more than once about this matter, though I've had to admit that conditions bad for my kind may be perfect for other species, and that she might not have reason to favor these upright-walking social primates who have been doing so much damage lately.

Key to the upcoming winter is an El Niño that is at least the second-strongest on record. This band of unusually warm water in the Pacific equatorial region affects the jet stream and other determiners of our winter season. A lot has changed (notably polar temperatures) since the previous largest El Niño twenty years ago, complicating the already-difficult task of predicting its effects. The best guess from NOAA is a wetter-than-usual winter, and a fair chance of a cooler one, though perhaps counterintuitively, “strong El Niño’s often mitigate the chances for freezing temperatures.” In this case, it's wise to take “often” to mean “not always”.

So even though it still feels almost summery out there, it's high time to make sure all your favorite freeze-protection methods are in place and ready to go on short notice. Just in case the warmer-than-usual temperatures don't last for the next three months.